After both PartinG and Rain won their matches, I have gone 6 for 6 in my predictions on this site so far. However, this is not as impressive as it looks for several reasons.
First of all, first there is the fact that this includes a modest sample size. After only 6 bets, there is not that unusual to see a win in all of them, certainly not out of the realm of possibility. Try flipping a coin six times in a row, guessing right 6 times in a row will happen sometimes after a while. And in addition to this, my bets have for the most part been low odds, high probability events that have occurred. The only bet that had odds > 2.00, where the bet on PartinG to win the first map against Life. Combining these facts, ends up with the conclusion that you must not be baffled by past results, they may simply come because of a lucky strike.
Now, I would like to toot my horn a little, as I am looking good picking Starcraft 2 bets as of right now :) So far I have picked the right side for the bets that I have analyzed, but that is not how it works in practice. Yes, most of the time I have bet on the favorites, as they are more likely to win, but betting on the favorites is not the right thing to do if the odds you receive are lower compared to the probability of the athlete to win the actual event. So you are not actually looking for which player that are most likely to win, but which players odds are too high compared to his probability of winning. That is how you win money on esports betting.
I will write a basic sports betting math article soon, and hopefully put up some new tips on starcraft 2 betting, but I will probably relax for a couple of days throughout the holiday, talk at ya.
