Misfits vs Rogue

Finally, to close out the first slew of LEC playoff matches, we have a fairly fascinating clash between Rogue and Misfits Gaming. Frankly speaking, this isn't exactly a premier match-up, nor is it a fight anyone actually expected to see, for a wide variety of reasons. These two teams had vastly different amounts of hype and momentum coming into the split, and yet they ended on a fairly similar level, ranked fifth and sixth.

You don't know what came as a bigger surprise, the fact that Rogue barely locked in their playoff spot, or that Misfits Gaming reached Top 6 at all. Let's focus on each team and their road towards this point before delving any deeper into the match-up at hand.

Coming into 2020, Rogue was considered by many fans, analysts and casters as a Top 4 team. This wasn't without good reason, of course. Their surge in late 2019 caught everyone by surprise and it was evident that they had far more potential than anyone could've anticipated. They were a brash, young, aggressive squad with immense talent and while they weren't the most experienced bunch around, what they lacked in experience they more than made up with bravado. Watching them in action was something else, and most of their success came as a result from sheer force and mechanical prowess. They had solid fundamentals as well, but what made them stood out was their willingness to engage and trade heavy blows regardless of the state of the game.

They did, however, have one huge weakness, and that was their bottom lane. Despite his best efforts, the legendary Polish marksman Woolite simply wasn't capable of going toe to toe with his contemporaries. As a result, Rogue always had a weak side of the map, regardless of their draft -- they had a weak link and were easy to exploit. 2020, then, brought change in the best possible way. By bringing over former Misfits Gaming alumni Hans Sama -- a player often considered as the poster child for the "next breed of EU talent" -- Rogue had upgraded in the only way they needed to. With Hans aboard, they started playing about as well as everyone expected them to. They were aggressive and highly proactive, they were winning games through all three lanes and looked like a powerhouse in the making. For a moment, it looked like things finally clicked for Rogue.

Until that ceased being the case. It's still impossible to understand what actually transpired mid-split, but Rogue lost their edge. They became far less consistent, and it happened seemingly without any good reason. It's not like the meta changed or other teams stepped up to a noticeable degree. Rogue imploded in small, nuanced ways, and it affected them heavily. They traded wins and losses without any rhyme or reason, often dropping games they were heavily favored in and winning games they had no business winning.

They're entering this match without much hype. That's a fact. They've lost to Schalke 04 and SK Gaming during the last week of regular season play. How does that even happen to a playoff team? Their eighth week record is no better with losses to G2 Esports and Fnatic. You have to go back all the way to March 7th to find their last win, and while it was a stellar showing against MAD Lions, it happened so long ago that it's effectively inconclusive evidence.

One has to wonder whether this is just a block on the road, something that can be reversed and corrected, or, in fact, a much bigger sign of trouble. If it's the former, then we might see a game Rogue today, the team everyone expected to see in the first place, a layered threat that can trade heavy blows with the who's who of the LEC. If it's the latter, however, they could be in for a very swift reality check.

Opposite them, we have Misfits Gaming, a team many predicted to be a bottom-tier dweller even before they stepped foot on stage to compete. In a year when basically every team upgraded beyond belief, Misfits Gaming decided to field a more modest line-up with four rookies and just a single veteran. Such a strategy is an okay approach overall, but after watching them implode in 2019 with a superstar line-up, no one in their right mind would've given them any benefit of the doubt. If they failed to dominate with multiple top-tier legends within their ranks, how could they do any better with a team comprised of seemingly random players? It became obvious that Misfits had problems across the board. Players, team culture, motivation, coaching staff -- all of this needed to change in more ways than one, and it had to happen fast in order for Misfits to stand even the slightest chance of scoring a comeback.

But against all odds, Misfits started dominating. While other teams struggled to find their footing, Misfits locked down an identity that worked (playing through their stellar jungle-mid duo) and stuck to it. They were far from perfect, but they had solid fundamentals and were unafraid of playing their own game. They took many teams by surprise which eventually resulted in a fantastic win streak -- the biggest reason why they're now in the playoffs at all.

But much like Rogue, Misfits worsened as the split progressed. Other teams adapted and were able to better understand how Misfits wanted to play and were, therefore, able to capitalize and counter. Once that happened, Misfits no longer had any tools to work with. They were still a solid, mid-tier team, but nowhere near as strong or dangerous as they were in the past. It's not that they're one-dimensional, but their most successful strategies are easy to read and, by proxy, easy to counter and prepare for. Rogue, for instance, was the first team that broke Misfits' win streak a couple of weeks back. They fought tooth and nail, and the win definitely didn't come easy, but they got the job done and, in doing so, provided the rest of the region with a blueprint that worked immaculately.

That is perhaps the most important game for us today as it'll heavily affect everyone's prediction. Much like Rogue, Misfits don't have any hype at the moment and they've lost all of their recent games other than a win over Team Vitality -- an expected triumph that should by no means influence the odds. By the same token, you have to go all the way back to March 6th to find their last meaningful win over Excel Esports. After that, they've dropped the ball against Origen, Schalke 04, MAD Lions, and G2 Esports.

So in actuality, we have two fairly dangerous teams that have regressed as the split went on. Right now, no one's quite sure how good they are, and whether they're even good in the first place. There are so many unknown factors at play here. Will these teams bounce back now that they're playing from home, in an online, scrim-like environment? Or will they still continue making egregious mistakes from start to finish? Frankly, it's impossible to know for certain.

What we do know, however, is that Rogue have more tools to work with. They can play through any lane and their players have shown a higher skill ceiling, along with a better understanding of the current meta. We're talking about nuanced differences here, but they exist nonetheless. If they play to the best of their ability -- something that is far from guaranteed -- they should definitely be able to get the win over Misfits Gaming. That's a big "if", of course, and it is by no means a given. They're flexible, creative, aggressive, and if they prepared well they should be able to repeat their success and take Misfits down yet again.

That said, it's downright impossible to predict the outcome of this match-up with confidence, especially with the environment these players now find themselves in. It could really go either way, but betting on Rogue does make more sense in the grand scheme of things. To win, they need to give Larssen priority in the draft, get Inspired on a comfort pick he can dominate on, put Finn and Vander on engage duty and give Hans Sama a scaling hyper carry that can function as late-game insurance. That's the standard, go-to Rogue draft -- solid early game, fantastic mid game with multiple tools to close things out and force fights once they all have their item and power spikes.

Hopefully they also understand their inherent strengths and will draft accordingly. In any case, expect absolute chaos to break out once these two teams clash on the Summoner's Rift.