Origen vs Rogue

The 2020 LEC Spring Split playoffs are moving along at quite a fast pace. We've already had multiple high-octane Best of 5s and things are bound to become even better and more competitive in just a couple of hours. Today we have a fantastic clash between third-ranked Origen and sixth-ranked Rogue.

On paper, this is quite a mismatch, given the amount of success each team found throughout the regular portion of the split. In reality, however, this is a much closer affair than most people realize. Coming into 2020, everyone thought that Rogue would end up in fourth place, right behind Origen. It was a logical expectation, given the amount of depth and experience they have present within their starting line-up. At best, they should've been able to compete with Origen in an attempt to crack Top 3. In actuality, however, Rogue struggled to maintain their level of play and were barely able to lock in sixth place.

Still, we saw their immense potential, even though it didn't always come when we'd expect. When they imposed their will, when they drafted to their strengths, they were definitely a force to be reckoned with. They're a multi-threat team and when they bring their A game you can see that with absolute clarity. Finn is constantly exerting pressure from the top lane, Inspired prioritizes the right lanes, Larssen pops off in patented Larssen ways (if he's given priority in the draft), and Hans Sama and Vander go toe to toe up until the mid and later stages of the game when they start to shine because of their stellar team fighting prowess.

All in all, they're quite a dangerous bunch when given the right tools to work with. They are, however, painfully inconsistent and you never really know which shade of Rogue will queue up and play. Sometimes it's the dominant, incredibly aggressive one. Other times, it's the meek and passive Rogue that fails to set things up properly and just gets rolled over in dominant fashion.

It seems like they can't grow quite as much as they need to because of their inconsistency, a flaw that is seemingly inherent to their five-man line-up. It's like whack-a-mole, in a way. They work on one thing, and another problem pops up in the meantime. They're constantly on the backfoot, trying to fix what's going on and, at times, it's just too much. Rogue is not playing at the same level as they did back at the start of the season. That's a fact. They're far less aggressive and their bottom lane isn't nearly as impactful as it was back in late January.

Their most recent showing against Misfits Gaming was a pretty darn good one, and it was, in a way, a return to form. Still, Misfits Gaming is not exactly the most mechanically sound or dangerous team around, so Rogue's 3-1 triumph isn't something that should be overly celebrated -- it was an expected outcome. If you're a Rogue fan, you'll take it, that's for sure. They needed a commanding, statement win badly, and they'll now enter this Best of 5 against Origen with at least some semblance of momentum.

Origen, on the other hand, is a mixed bag at the moment. They've lost a bit of stock after getting smacked around by Fnatic last week, so it's really hard to give them any benefit of the doubt. Still, once they improved mid-series and started prioritizing their own comfort champions, they not only took a game but also looked pretty darn dominant in the process. That was the Origen everyone expected, and it was a learning experience for everyone involved.

Still, they're the kind of team that goes back to the drawing board, figures things out, and then returns with a vengeance. They've basically been humiliated by Fnatic, so they're probably looking to lash out on someone else this time around. Fortunately, they have Rogue in front of them, a team that is, for all intents and purposes, weaker in every way, shape, and form.

Don't let their recent shellacking fool you. Origen is still a Top 3 team and they have all the right tools to tango with the very best teams the LEC has to offer. They won't beat G2 or Fnatic, but everyone else is fair game, as evidenced by their regular season run. They're somewhat one-dimensional, but they're so incredibly proficient at the things they do well that it's hard to beat them if you don't have something unique to bring to the table. To overcome Origen, you need to have better fundamentals and a better understanding of both the game itself (and its many nuanced, intricate layers) and the meta. That's a tall order for anyone, and most teams just can't compete.

Because of this, we simply have to side with Origen. They're the better team lane for lane and they've shown it on many different occasions throughout the split. They also hold a 2-0 in their head to head record against Rogue, so they know very well what they're up against. They've already prepared for Rogue in the past, so there shouldn't be any element of surprise.

They need to give Alphari agency, to get Xerxe on a comfort pick so that he can exert pressure early and impact the map, and put Destiny -- arguably their weakest player -- on a champion that suits his playstyle, something like a Nautilus or Thresh. With Origen, the draft is fairly linear and cookie cutter, but that doesn't always have to be a negative. If they navigate and maneuver the pick and ban phase -- as they've done so many times in the past -- they shouldn't have too much trouble in taking Rogue down in this Best of 5.

Still, Rogue never goes down without a fight, and even if they are worse than Origen, it's by the slimmest of margins, so expect a hectic, skirmish-heavy series that might even go the distance. In any case, we should definitely be entertained.